eBay 存在信任问题——它可以解决吗？

How long does it take for people to take notice when a brand tries to change its reputation?

This is the dilemma eBay is facing as it attempts to explain away large buyer losses by convincing investors it is targeting high-value buyers that can increase revenue and General Merchandise Volume (GMV).

First, let’s take a brief look at what happened over the last two years on the marketplace.

eBay data shows that at the end of 2019, the company had approximately 154 million* active buyers. In the second quarter of 2020, the company gained 8 million buyers as shoppers shifted rapidly to buying online due to the pandemic.

However, in 2021, eBay lost a net of 18 million active buyers, finishing the year with 147 million active buyers.

The company considers an active buyer to be a buyer that has made at least one purchase in the previous 12 months on the marketplace.

So, despite a huge bump of new buyers eBay gained during the pandemic, the company had a net loss of about 7 million buyers from the end of year 2019 to end of year 2021.

Last year, during the 2021 Q2 earnings call, eBay introduced a new strategy claiming it was shifting its marketing strategy to attract more high-value buyers. Many of these buyers would be coming from its authenticity guarantee program which is currently available in the sneakers, watches, designer handbags, and trading cards categories.

“This higher-quality mix of buyers increases value for sellers and will lead to improved health of our ecosystem over the long-term,” said eBay CEO Jamie Iannone during the call.

Steve Priest, the company’s CFO added, this “high-value segment represents approximately 20% of our buyer base and they purchase around 75% of our GMV.”

Focusing on a select group of customers that represent a higher value to a company is not a new strategy nor is the idea that about 20 percent of customers make up a significant portion of sales.

The 80/20 rule or Pareto Principle is taught in Business 101 classes at college and the airline industry is probably one of the most prolific industries to use loyalty programs as a marketing tool to tie customers to its service.

However, unlike airline frequent flier programs, eBay didn’t announce a loyalty program, nor did they announce a comprehensive strategy on how they would focus on these higher-value customers.

Throughout the rest of 2021, eBay only provided some metrics to imply that its strategy was working and higher value buyers were spending money on other categories.

Trust is Core Element of New eBay Strategy

It wasn’t until its Investor Day two weeks ago that eBay provided more of a strategy on how it will attract these buyers and keep them on the marketplace. Throughout the 4 hour presentation, it used the word TRUST frequently, claiming that its platform is providing the trust to execute the strategy successfully.

The cornerstone of this trust relies on its authenticity guarantee programs which the company offers in select categories such as sneakers, watches, handbags, and trading cards.

When eligible items are sold using its authenticity guarantee program, they are sent to an authentication service for verification before the buyer receives them. This is supposed to ensure the buyer receives a professionally vetted and genuine product that is exactly as described.

Many items sold through its authenticity program are pre-owned products, so the condition of the item is a key factor in the price a buyer or collector is willing to pay.

eBay even acquired one of its third-party authentication partners last year to secure more control over the process and in theory, this should benefit both buyers and sellers.

But as good as the program sounds, there have been problems reported by sellers and buyers on social media and the company’s community forums. From long delays to authenticate products to buyers claiming they ended up receiving fake goods despite passing through the vetting process.

In addition, sellers have claimed they received fake goods as returns or buyers would send items back in a condition that did not match the original item as listed. Most of these anecdotal claims are difficult to confirm after the fact, but now there is one that was reported by a TV station in Atlanta.

Part-time eBay seller Tricia Johnson complained to WSB-TV about a purse she sold on eBay which passed through the authentication process. Ten days after receipt, the buyer filed a claim with eBay claiming the purse had stains and scratches and requested a refund.

“She [the buyer] got her money back before they [eBay] let me do anything,” Johnson said to WSB-TV and when the purse was returned to her, it had no stains, but more new scratches, she added.

Johnson also told the TV station that this was the second time she had an issue with a designer item she sold on eBay and voiced her frustration with the platform, “I honestly feel that eBay is probably becoming a platform for scammers.”

That sentiment doesn’t build trust!

It’s possible that like other similar complaints on social media, Johnson’s experience could be isolated and there is no way to know if eBay has a systemic issue with its authenticity program.

But since the company highlighted its authentication service during its Investor Day as a cornerstone piece to attract more high-value buyers, problems with the program could be problematic for its strategy.

It even plans to roll out an eBay Vault that will enable alternative asset investors to store items that passed through its authenticity program in a secure facility that can be sold on the marketplace instantly or fractionally.

This requires the ultimate amount of trust as buyers may never see the item to be able to independently confirm its authenticity and have to fully rely on eBay’s service to be accurate.

Trust is at the heart of these initiatives and eBay appears to be facing headwinds with this issue as reinforced by nationally recognized consumer advocate and expert Howard Clark.

Clark told WSB-TV that he cautions against selling high-end goods on eBay and recommends consumers use marketplaces specifically designed for luxury goods.

“eBay is just not structurally equipped with people selling high-end goods to protect both the buyer and the seller,” Clark added.

While Clark didn’t specify which marketplaces he suggests for these goods, GOAT and StockX had entered the higher-value and luxury goods authenticity space well before eBay.

Both companies are smaller niche players but build their reputation on their authenticity programs. In other words, their success depended on it from day one, while eBay is really pretty new in this space.

Reports of scams on both sides of the transaction have plagued eBay for years.

The eBay authenticity program is supposed to cure this problem, at least for high-value and luxury goods, by having a third party (eBay or a vendor) confirm authenticity and condition.

But considering that 18 million buyers fled the marketplace in 2021 alone, and 2 million sellers called it quits as well, eBay has a lot of work cut out for itself to build that trust. The only plausible explanation for the exodus is that users are unhappy with eBay.

A brand that is trusted usually doesn’t have declining metrics at record levels and that is exactly what has happened to eBay in 2021. Claiming the losses are due to pandemic buyers is disingenuous as the platform’s active buyer base is now lower than it was before the pandemic. That simply runs counter to most other online commerce retailers and marketplaces.

eBay is not heading toward financial trouble. It’s still a profitable business that keeps finding new and creative ways to squeeze out more revenue from sales on its marketplace.

But should active buyer and seller numbers continue to tumble, no amount of corporate-speak will keep investors satisfied for long that its strategy of focusing on a small segment of enthusiast buyers is the key to long-term success while “low-value” users are fleeing the platform.

Users don’t leave brands or platforms if they are satisfied and happy. They leave because they no longer like or trust the brand or service.

It could be a pivotal moment in the company’s history as it tries to change the perception of its brand and reinvents itself as a higher-end marketplace to drive GMV from fewer users than it had two years ago before the pandemic.

* Adjusted to reflect today’s eBay marketplace operation. eBay originally reported 183 million active buyers at the end of Q4 2019, which included StubHub (~9 million) and its Korean operations (~20 million). Both units have been sold since

译文：

当一个品牌试图改变其声誉时，人们需要多长时间才能注意到？

这就是 eBay 面临的两难境地，因为它试图通过说服投资者它的目标是可以增加收入和一般商品交易量 (GMV) 的高价值买家来解释大量买家的损失。

首先，让我们简要回顾一下过去两年市场上发生的事情。

eBay 数据显示，截至 2019 年底，该公司拥有约 1.54 亿*活跃买家。在 2020 年第二季度，由于大流行导致购物者迅速转向在线购买，该公司获得了 800 万买家。

然而，在 2021 年，eBay 净损失了 1800 万活跃买家，以 1.47 亿活跃买家结束了这一年。

该公司认为活跃买家是在过去 12 个月内至少在市场上进行过一次购买的买家。

因此，尽管 eBay 在大流行期间获得了大量新买家，但从 2019 年底到 2021 年底，该公司净损失了约 700 万买家。

去年，在 2021 年第二季度财报电话会议上，eBay 推出了一项新战略，声称正在改变其营销策略以吸引更多高价值买家。其中许多买家将来自其真实性保证计划，该计划目前可用于运动鞋、手表、名牌手袋和交易卡类别。

“这种更高质量的买家组合增加了卖家的价值，并将长期改善我们生态系统的健康状况，”eBay 首席执行官 Jamie Iannone 在电话会议上表示。

该公司首席财务官 Steve Priest 补充说，“这个高价值细分市场约占我们买家群的 20%，他们购买了我们约 75% 的 GMV。”

专注于对公司具有更高价值的特定客户群并不是一个新策略，也不是大约 20% 的客户占销售额的很大一部分的想法。

80/20 规则或帕累托原则在大学的商业 101 课程中教授，航空业可能是使用忠诚度计划作为营销工具将客户与其服务联系起来最多产的行业之一。

然而，与航空公司的飞行常客计划不同，eBay 没有宣布忠诚度计划，也信任是新 eBay 战略的核心要素

直到两周前的投资者日，eBay 才提供了更多关于如何吸引这些买家并让他们留在市场上的策略。在 4 小时的演示中，它经常使用 TRUST 一词，声称其平台提供了成功执行策略的信任。

这种信任的基石依赖于公司在运动鞋、手表、手袋和交易卡等特定类别中提供的真实性保证计划。

当符合条件的商品使用其真实性保证计划出售时，它们会在买家收到之前被发送到认证服务进行验证。这是为了确保买家收到完全符合描述的经过专业审查的正品产品。

许多通过其真实性计划出售的物品都是二手产品，因此物品的状况是买家或收藏家愿意支付的价格的关键因素。

eBay 去年甚至收购了其第三方认证合作伙伴之一，以确保对流程的更多控制，从理论上讲，这应该使买卖双方都受益。

但尽管该计划听起来不错，但卖家和买家在社交媒体和公司的社区论坛上报告了一些问题。从验证产品的长时间延迟到声称他们最终收到假货的买家，尽管通过了审查程序。

此外，卖家声称他们收到了假货作为退货，否则买家会将商品以与所列原始商品不符的状态退回。这些传闻中的大多数事后都很难证实，但现在亚特兰大的一家电视台报道了一个。

兼职 eBay 卖家 Tricia Johnson 向 WSB-TV 抱怨她在 eBay 上出售的一个钱包通过了认证过程。收到后十天，买家向 eBay 提出索赔，声称钱包有污渍和划痕，并要求退款。

一个值得信赖的品牌通常不会出现创纪录水平的指标下降，这正是 2021 年 eBay 发生的情况。声称损失是由于大流行买家造成的，这是不诚实的，因为该平台的活跃买家群现在低于以前流行病。这与大多数其他在线商务零售商和市场背道而驰。

eBay 不会陷入财务困境。它仍然是一项有利可图的业务，它不断寻找新的和创造性的方法来从其市场上的销售中榨取更多收入。

但如果活跃的买家和卖家数量继续下降，再多的企业言论也无法让投资者长期满意，因为其专注于一小部分狂热买家的策略是长期成功的关键，而“低价值”用户正在逃离平台。

如果用户感到满意和开心，他们就不会离开品牌或平台。他们离开是因为他们不再喜欢或信任品牌或服务。

这可能是该公司历史上的一个关键时刻，因为它试图改变对其品牌的看法，并将自己重塑为一个高端市场，以推动 GMV 的用户数量少于两年前大流行前的水平。

* 调整以反映今天的 eBay 市场运营。 eBay 最初报告称，截至 2019 年第四季度末有 1.83 亿活跃买家，其中包括 StubHub（约 900 万）及其韩国业务（约 2000 万）。从那以后，这两个单位都已售出。